31 March 2025
I will make a bold prediction right now. Robots will put the nursing home industry out of business.
For my prediction to be (possibly) true, we must make TWO assumptions.
The first assumption is: promises about the near future of home help robots will be realized. This means what is being reported about the capabilities of these robots is equal to but quite possibly better than what is being written about right now. More on that later.
The second assumption is: the nursing home industry fails to lift its game.
One of these assumptions is more likely than the other.
For the benefit of mainly younger readers, there is a difference between a retirement village and a nursing home. To the uninitiated, they are much the same thing – places to cart old people to, assuage our guilt, and minimize impact on our time.
I speak from indirect experience; my wife and I have helped our parents into and out of both (IN - reluctant but lucid, OUT via the services of an ambulance or undertaker).
We know precisely the difference in terms of cost, value for money, emotional impact, and "the gotchas"
Retirement villages
Retirement villages are for people downsizing to a smaller more manageable and economically sustainable residential accommodation (for example, a single or double-bedroom unit, with combined kitchen and living area, bathroom and maybe a very small courtyard (room for drying a mop and killing a pot plant).
Retirement villages vary in the amount of living assistance they provide, which can range from feeding, cleaning, laundry, to helping with outings. Mostly, you shop for yourself, feed yourself, put out your own rubbish, self-medicate, get yourself to your appointments, clean your abode, switch on the television yourself. You get the idea.
What they provide is fully maintained buildings and environs with community facilities.
Nursing homes
Nursing homes are the next stage toward oblivion. These are mainly for people unable to care for themselves. You are likely confined to bed (or spend most of your day there), need help dressing, probably need help getting to the bathroom (and using it), someone provides your pills, and they feed you something palatable/edible.
Being realistic, no matter how "cheerful" the nursing home staff are, they have a busy schedule - not a lot of time to stop and chat and certainly not always immediately available when you hit the call button (which seems to become desensitized if you hit it too often).
Nursing homes are a short term proposition. Once you have watched every episode of Seinfeld - you know the final siren isn't far away.
None of the economics are satisfactory. Suffice to say whatever wealth you had managed to accumulate before signing-up, when you vacate the retirement village or nursing home your family will be unpleasantly surprised as to how much the operators have retained; your family will be reading the fine-print this time with a magnifying glass.
Now, this isn’t to say they don’t need to charge what they do, nor is it suggesting they didn’t tell you in advance what they were going to do (keep a lot of your money) I ‘am just saying at the check-out the reaction will be “you’re kidding me?”
So that’s just the financials. Not the main issue because at the end of the day (the final end of the day) you can’t take it with you (leaving aside many people think about maximizing what they pass on to their children) so why worry about it?
Let me get to the point and it’s not financial.
Where would you rather spend your final days, in the home you have built and loved, or living in the company of strangers in less than perfect circumstances?
And even if the Nursing Home industry transformed over night and magically made it a beautiful thing, let me ask the question again – where would you rather spend your final days?
I recently watched (one of many) YouTube videos espousing the idea (or prediction) humanoid "home assistance" robots will soon be ubiquitous – starting in 2025. That’s like NOW.
Rather than the generic term "robot" (more properly called "automation"), this plays to the sci-fi zeitgeist; robots looking more like the droids in Star Wars.
Many companies are working on (and are about to launch on a suspecting public) such robots including Tesla.
Starting price will be around USD$100k but predictions are within 18 months they will come down to a very affordable USD$20k. They will launch this year.
Of course, I will buy one (probably wait until version 2.0. The first ones are likely to be wonky).
It's entirely possible by the time I am well into my cardigan years (or further when I am sitting in a chair dribbling with a rug over my knees) they won't have to pack me off to a nursing home. I'll be seeing out my final days living at home (my home) being looked after by a couple of home assist robots.
My children will visit me because they want to and not resent the possibility they may be asked to perform obligations.
When you think currently, Nursing Homes touch you up for a hefty Refundable Accommodation Deposit (refunded less deductions) often requiring you to sell your home + roughly $64 per day for a modest bedroom and being fed meals not much better than baked beans on toast - many people will opt for a less disruptive, more dignified, and less confronting "die at home" in the company of C3PO and R2D2.
